Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have triggered severe Russian gasoline shortage and record-high prices, directly impacting consumers in multiple regions. This situation marks a significant shift in the war’s dynamic, moving the economic consequences from the front lines to Russian households.
Motorists in areas like the Far East and Crimea face dry pumps, long lines, and extreme price gouging. Consequently, officials have implemented rationing and, in some cases, halted public fuel sales entirely. This crisis stems from a targeted Ukrainian campaign against energy infrastructure.
Widespread Impact of Fuel Shortages
The wholesale price for A-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange recently hit a record high. It is now approximately 50% higher than in January. Moreover, local media reports describe desperate drivers in the Primorye region selling fuel online for as much as 220 rubles per liter ($10.12/gallon).
In response to the crisis, the Kurilsky district halted all public sales of lower-octane A-92 gasoline. Similarly, companies in Crimea limited sales to holders of special coupons or cards. These measures highlight the severity of the supply disruption.
Strategic Timing of Refinery Attacks
Russia typically experiences seasonal fuel price increases due to summer travel and harvest demand. However, Ukrainian drone attacks have dramatically exacerbated this year’s situation. A senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Sergey Vakulenko, explained the strategy to the Associated Press.
“The Ukrainians are attacking an arc of refineries… from Ryazan… to Volgograd,” Vakulenko stated. This region is crucial for summer travel and harvest operations. Between August 2 and 24, Ukraine launched at least 12 successful attacks on oil infrastructure, with most focused on this strategic arc.
Production Disruption and Economic Pain
While the strikes have not destroyed refineries outright, they have significantly slowed operations. According to Energy Intelligence analyst Gary Peach, crude oil intake for processing has fallen by roughly 200,000-250,000 barrels per day. This reduction has caused tangible pain during peak consumption months.
Official data shows gasoline production fell 8.6% in the first 19 days of August compared to a year earlier. Diesel production also dropped by 10.3%. These disruptions are a key factor behind the current crisis.
Additional Factors Intensifying the Crisis
Several other war-related issues are compounding the problem. Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on transportation networks have disrupted air traffic, forcing more people to travel by car. Additionally, high inflation has made the fuel storage trade less profitable, discouraging suppliers from stocking up earlier in the year.
Individually, these issues might be manageable. Together, however, they have transformed a normal seasonal fluctuation into a full-blown government problem. As a result, Russia paused gasoline exports on July 28 to stabilize the domestic market.
Moscow’s Response and Future Vulnerabilities
The government has summoned oil company managers for emergency meetings to address the shortages. Fortunately for Moscow, the capital itself remains well-supplied by nearby refineries and has been largely spared from the worst effects.
Furthermore, Russia is not at risk of a full standstill. The military and most commercial transport rely on diesel, for which Russia maintains a significant surplus. The current crisis primarily affects private consumers.
Nevertheless, the situation exposes a critical vulnerability. If Ukrainian drone attacks damage key distillation columns, repairs could be slow, especially if they require foreign parts under sanction. This vulnerability presents a ongoing strategic challenge for Russia.Industry observers expect the gasoline crisis to ease by late September as demand subsides. However, the episode successfully demonstrates how drone warfare can effectively target economic infrastructure and create tangible domestic pressure.
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